Ukraine

I once again find myself writing about major international events as they are unfolding.  This time it is Russia's attack on Ukraine that appears to be in the opening stages tonight, with airstrikes of some sort taking place in large cities there early Thursday.  After that amount of buildup, it seemed unlikely to me that Russia wouldn't follow through.  I can't envision even the intended endgame, but I suppose a new "independent" government loyal to the Kremlin is the most likely outcome Russia is looking for, although they may try to just absorb Ukraine entirely, after Putin's "Ukraine isn't even a real country" quotes over the years.

While it seems likely Ukraine will fall quickly in the face of a full scale assault, I believe that it is possible that Ukrainians could mount a a reasonable level of resistance in the form of an insurgency, but Russia may have counters to that.  In Afghanistan, the helicopters were Soviets strength against the locals, and once they were neutralized, the fight went the other direction.  We need to determine what that factor is in this conflict, and figure out how to counter it.  I expect that factor will be electronic in some form, but I am not sure exactly what, either information warfare, or cyber attacks to infrastructure, or disrupting communications.  The Russians will probably fair better than Americans have against an insurgency, because they are less concerned about the collateral damage they cause.

Obviously one of the main concerns, is that the violence would escalate beyond the borders of Ukraine, and spill into the surrounding countries.  I don't think this is the beginning or WW3, but it is possible.  If the Russians inflict casualties on US forces in the region, even is inadvertently, it could lead to a larger conflict.  I also don't think it is the beginning of another 50 year Cold War, like people were proposing this morning, but I think those misconceptions will have been put to bed in the next 48 hours.

This seems pretty clearly an issue that there is nothing I can personally do about, so I am less stressed about it than some of the other current events, like Australia and Canada's slide into authoritarianism, the general Covid craziness, and the rest of the US government's debacle of everything it undertakes, under its own incredible weight.  But it is disturbing none less, and having a great deal more impact on a large number of people, and nearly none of that impact will be positive.  Clearly something to be praying about.