Following The Conflict in Ukraine

Many people were surprised by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, to the point of apologizing for discounting the idea, including the Secretary General of the UN.  I am not surprised they actually did it, and can't figure out why so many people didn't see it coming.  But I, and most of the rest of the world, have been surprised at how strong and effective Ukraine's resistance has been against a much better armed Russian military.  Supposedly they have destroyed hundreds of armored vehicles, shot down planes full of paratroopers, and killed hundreds or thousands of the invaders.  They have clearly not only slowed the advance, but even taken back ground in certain areas.  It certainly bodes well for the 2nd Amendment supporters here at home, making their case for the value of an armed populace.  Because this is nearly all being done with handheld weapons, against modern tanks, fighter jets, and attack helicopters.

While I would love for this to be a humiliating defeat for the Russians, I fear that it may provoke them to use stronger weapons to destroy Ukrainian cities instead of capture them, killing thousands of civilians.  I think the use of nuclear weapons is unlikely, but should require a Nuclear response from the US.  (The Budapest Memorandum in pretty clear on that point, even Russia agrees.)  But there are lots of non-nuclear weapons that can cause significant damage, carpet bombing cities, or burning them to the ground.  Hopefully that would elicit a response from the rest of the world, even from China, distancing itself from that travesty which would be broadcast in real-time as Russians repeated it in different locations.  And it might even generate a response within Russia, turning the tides of power against Putin, as many of his allies in Moscow would not stand for it.  But even if it let to a change in power in Russia, it would be an unspeakable tragedy for the Ukrainians.  And while cities were bombed in WWII, weapons are so much more powerful now, that much more damage could be done in a shorter period of time, and with less risk to the aggressor.

I do wonder what the US would do if it detected that Russia was launching nuclear missiles at Ukrainian cities.  Would we attempt to shoot down the missiles?  If not, why?  What would there be to lose at that point?  I also think it would be interesting to use submarines to engage ships in the Black Sea, as there should be some level of deniability there.  If Putin turned around and his Black Sea fleet was gone, that would be fitting.  We don't know what happened, sorry, war is hell.

It will be interesting to see what happens.  I am impressed by, and rooting for, the Ukrainians, but they definitely need our prayers.  And our support in any way we can help them.

Ukraine

I once again find myself writing about major international events as they are unfolding.  This time it is Russia's attack on Ukraine that appears to be in the opening stages tonight, with airstrikes of some sort taking place in large cities there early Thursday.  After that amount of buildup, it seemed unlikely to me that Russia wouldn't follow through.  I can't envision even the intended endgame, but I suppose a new "independent" government loyal to the Kremlin is the most likely outcome Russia is looking for, although they may try to just absorb Ukraine entirely, after Putin's "Ukraine isn't even a real country" quotes over the years.

While it seems likely Ukraine will fall quickly in the face of a full scale assault, I believe that it is possible that Ukrainians could mount a a reasonable level of resistance in the form of an insurgency, but Russia may have counters to that.  In Afghanistan, the helicopters were Soviets strength against the locals, and once they were neutralized, the fight went the other direction.  We need to determine what that factor is in this conflict, and figure out how to counter it.  I expect that factor will be electronic in some form, but I am not sure exactly what, either information warfare, or cyber attacks to infrastructure, or disrupting communications.  The Russians will probably fair better than Americans have against an insurgency, because they are less concerned about the collateral damage they cause.

Obviously one of the main concerns, is that the violence would escalate beyond the borders of Ukraine, and spill into the surrounding countries.  I don't think this is the beginning or WW3, but it is possible.  If the Russians inflict casualties on US forces in the region, even is inadvertently, it could lead to a larger conflict.  I also don't think it is the beginning of another 50 year Cold War, like people were proposing this morning, but I think those misconceptions will have been put to bed in the next 48 hours.

This seems pretty clearly an issue that there is nothing I can personally do about, so I am less stressed about it than some of the other current events, like Australia and Canada's slide into authoritarianism, the general Covid craziness, and the rest of the US government's debacle of everything it undertakes, under its own incredible weight.  But it is disturbing none less, and having a great deal more impact on a large number of people, and nearly none of that impact will be positive.  Clearly something to be praying about.